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SAUL CENTERS, INC. (BFS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue grew 1.9% YoY to $67.9M, but net income fell to $10.4M and diluted EPS to $0.22 as Twinbrook Quarter Phase 1 moved from construction to operations; FFO/share declined to $0.63 as initial operating costs outpaced early rent-up contributions .
  • Twinbrook Phase 1 reduced Q4 net income by $6.8M and Q4 FFO by $4.7M; excluding this, the quarter was pressured by a $2.4M YoY decline in lease-termination fees, partially offset by +$2.3M higher commercial base rent .
  • Portfolio fundamentals remain resilient: commercial leased 95.2% (+110 bps YoY) and residential (ex-The Milton) 98.3%; same-property operating income declined 2.5% in Q4 due to lower termination fees on the shopping center side, with mixed-use up modestly .
  • Estimates context: S&P Global consensus was unavailable via our tool. Third-party (Zacks) indicated Q4 FFO/share of $0.63 missed $0.68 consensus (-7.35%), while revenue modestly beat (+1.47%); we expect near-term estimate trims for FFO until The Milton leasing/retail ramp offsets operating costs .
  • Key catalysts: The Milton (Twinbrook) lease-up velocity (202 units occupied as of Feb 24), stabilization of Wegmans/shops, and normalization of lease-termination fee cadence; dividend maintained at $0.59 in Dec. 2024 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Resilient top line and occupancy: Q4 revenue +$1.2M YoY to $67.9M; commercial leased 95.2% vs 94.1% YoY; residential (ex-The Milton) 98.3% vs 98.0% .
    • Base rent growth offsets part of fee headwinds: higher commercial base rent +$2.3M YoY supported results despite lower termination fees .
    • Mixed-use strength: Q4 mixed-use same-property operating income rose by $0.6M YoY, driven by higher residential base rent (+$0.5M) .
    • Management commentary (press release): “Concurrent with the delivery of Twinbrook Quarter Phase 1… interest, real estate taxes and all other costs… including depreciation, began to be charged to expense, while revenue continues to grow as occupancy increases” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Transition headwind from development to operations: Twinbrook Phase 1 impacted Q4 net income by -$6.8M and FFO by -$4.7M as costs recognized ahead of full revenue ramp .
    • Fee normalization: Lower lease-termination fees (-$2.4M YoY) reduced same-property shopping center operating income despite base rent growth .
    • Higher expense burden: Q4 interest expense rose to $16.8M (vs $12.6M), with depreciation and G&A also higher, compressing net income and EPS .

Financial Results

  • Consolidated income and FFO
MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($M)$66.943 $67.288 $67.924
Net Income ($M)$19.490 $19.592 $10.358
Net Income Avail. to Common ($M)$11.649 $11.683 $5.291
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.48 $0.48 $0.22
FFO Avail. to Common & NCI ($M)$28.511 $28.866 $21.959
Diluted FFO/Share$0.83 $0.83 $0.63
  • Margins (computed from reported figures)
MarginQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Income Margin % (Net Income / Revenue)29.1% 29.1% 15.2%
  • Segment operating performance (same-property)
Same-Property Operating Income ($M)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Shopping Centers$36.812 $36.362 $35.339
Mixed-Use$12.867 $13.195 $12.859
Total$49.679 $49.557 $48.198
  • KPIs
KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Commercial Leased %95.8% 95.7% 95.2%
Residential Leased %99.4% 98.8% 98.3% (ex-The Milton)
Twinbrook Phase 1 Units Leased & Occupied202 units as of 2/24/25
  • YoY context (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

    • Revenue: $67.9M vs $66.7M (+1.9%) .
    • Net income: $10.4M vs $17.5M (decline largely from Twinbrook initial ops and lower termination fees) .
    • Diluted FFO/share: $0.63 vs $0.79 .
  • Estimates vs Actuals (Note: S&P Global consensus unavailable via our tool)

    • FFO/share: Actual $0.63 vs Zacks $0.68; Surprise: -7.35% .
    • Revenue: Actual $67.924M; Surprise +1.47% vs Zacks consensus (consensus level not disclosed in source) .
    • S&P Global consensus: unavailable at time of query (daily request limit reached).

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Formal Financial Guidance (Revenue/FFO)2025Not providedNot provided in Q4 materialsMaintained: no guidance provided
Common Dividend/ShareQ1 2025 (declared 12/5/24)$0.59$0.59 (payable 1/31/25)Maintained
2024 Total Common Dividends (tax characterization)FY 2024$2.36/share; 71.66% ordinary income; 28.34% ROCInformational update

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: An earnings call transcript was not available in our document catalog; themes below reflect company press releases from Q2–Q4 2024.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Development ramp (Twinbrook Phase 1)No P&L impact yet (pre-delivery) Delivery imminent; not yet in operations Delivered 10/1/24; initial ops reduced net income by $6.8M and FFO by $4.7M as expenses recognized ahead of full rent-up Near-term headwind, improving with lease-up
Lease termination feesElevated/beneficial in Q2 (+$1.6M) Elevated (+$0.6M) Lower YoY (-$2.4M), pressuring Shopping Center same-property OI Normalizing lower
Base rent growth+$0.8M YoY; supports SP NOI +$2.2M YoY; supports SP NOI +$2.3M YoY; partial offset to fee decline Positive/steady
OccupancyComm. 95.8%; Res. 99.4% Comm. 95.7%; Res. 98.8% Comm. 95.2%; Res. 98.3% (ex-Milton) High, modest softening in commercial
Interest expense burden$12.3M in Q2 $12.2M in Q3 $16.8M in Q4 (higher as assets move to ops and financing costs persist) Higher pressure
Mixed-use performanceStable SP OI ($12.9M) Higher SP OI ($13.2M) SP OI $12.9M; residential rent driver Solid

Management Commentary

  • Strategic message (press release): The transition of Twinbrook Phase 1 from construction to operations drives expense recognition upfront (interest, taxes, depreciation), with revenue ramping as occupancy grows; this dynamic weighed on Q4 GAAP and FFO, but is expected to improve as leasing progresses .
  • Operating drivers: Q4 YoY decline in shopping center same-property operating income primarily reflected lower termination fees (-$2.6M), partially offset by higher base rent (+$1.1M) .
  • Portfolio fundamentals: Commercial leased 95.2% (+110 bps YoY), residential (ex-Milton) 98.3% (+30 bps YoY) as of year-end .

Notable quotes (press release text):

  • “Concurrent with the delivery of Twinbrook Quarter Phase 1… interest, real estate taxes and all other costs… including depreciation, began to be charged to expense, while revenue continues to grow as occupancy increases.”
  • “As of December 31, 2024, 95.2% of the commercial portfolio was leased… [and] excluding The Milton at Twinbrook Quarter, the residential portfolio was 98.3% leased.”

Q&A Highlights

  • An earnings call transcript for Q4 2024 was not available in our source set; as a result, Q&A themes and any clarifications provided on the call could not be reviewed or summarized.

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable via our tool at the time of query (daily request limit reached).
  • Third-party source (Zacks via Yahoo Finance) indicated:
    • FFO/share: Actual $0.63 vs $0.68 consensus; Surprise -7.35% .
    • Revenue: Actual $67.924M; Surprise +1.47% (consensus level not disclosed in source) .
  • Implication: We expect modest downward revisions to near-term FFO/share until Twinbrook Phase 1’s occupancy and rent collections scale; revenue trajectory appears resilient, supported by base rent growth and stable occupancy .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term earnings headwind is largely mechanical: Twinbrook Phase 1’s move into operations front-loads expense recognition; as leasing/retail tenants ramp, this should abate and support FFO recovery .
  • Core fundamentals are intact: commercial occupancy at 95.2% and steady base rent growth underpin revenue stability despite termination-fee variability .
  • Same-property shopping center results likely normalize as fee comps ease; monitor leasing spreads and renewal activity to gauge organic rent growth staying power .
  • Interest expense and depreciation stepped up in Q4; liability structure (construction and mortgage/term debt) will keep finance costs in focus—refinancing progress and capex pacing matter for 2025 cash flow .
  • Dividend maintained ($0.59 declared in Dec. 2024), signaling confidence in cash generation through the Twinbrook ramp .
  • Watch The Milton’s leasing cadence (202 units occupied by Feb 24) and Wegmans/shops performance—updates here are likely to be the main stock catalysts .
  • Expect consensus recalibration: external estimates flagged an FFO/share miss vs expectations, while revenue outperformed; estimate dispersion may tighten as visibility on Twinbrook improves .

Citations

  • Q4 2024 8-K/Ex. 99.1 (press release and financials): .
  • Q4 2024 press release (PR Newswire): .
  • Q3 2024 8-K/press materials: .
  • Q2 2024 press release: .
  • Dividend and tax announcements: .
  • Estimates context (third-party): Yahoo Finance/Zacks .

S&P Global disclaimer: S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable via our tool at the time of request; third-party estimates are cited where used.